Non- Farm Payrolls will be the story today. S&P’s sit just below the key 1129.50 going into the number . Jobs remain the key to everything , without them any recovery is just a bunch of over blown statistics.
Some Questions I have going into the report?
* How low can the payroll number go before upsetting the delicate balance the market has now as it waits for the Fed and a new surge of cash via QE 2? -100k, -200k, A jobless rate above 10% would be a huge headline grabber outside the financial community
* If the number comes in on target do we blow through resistance in a hurry? Or does the market need to see confirmation from the Fed of new stimulus?
* Continued crazy talk of a more direct intervention to the housing market? If inflating the banks doesn’t produce any trickle down to the consumer this may gain some steam over the next few months. If the jobs number does not pick up soon there will a rising public uproar. How long can voters keep listening to sell side advocates harping on CNBC about how capital needs to get flowing from the top down at the expense of taxpayers?
* Do we have a permanent structural employment problem? It’s an emerging populace view. The Real question if it is true , can all the money in the world( plus money we make up via printing) change this?
* My gut feeling, any number that is close to on-line or explainable and the current trend of higher stocks, higher bonds and a lower dollar keeps on trucking.