If the truth be told, it is hard to believe anything that you hear these days. If you look at the internet, it is hard to believe that mankind will make it past December 31, 2012. If you follow the financial headlines, the last investment you could think about is BP Oil.
Everyone hates BP. The tree huggers, the fisherman, the beach goers, and they all should. BP has let everyone down with their careless handling of the Gulf Estuary. Personally I also despise how they have conducted their drilling in the Gulf. But at heart, I am a capitalist. BIG risk brings BIG reward.
On July 6th as the cauldron boiled and BP’s demise was imminent a strange thing happened, the selling stopped. BP hit a low of 30.90 around 11:00 AM and ended higher on the day. The next day it broke above key resistance.
I wrote a column asking is it’s safe. I thought that BP represented a value versus other companies in the energy business, and recommended a buy with a 10% stop. As they say the rest is history. The US stock market as measured by the DJIA is up 7.5% from that date. BP has outperformed the market by 200%. When the headlines in the WSJ blared that BP must sell assets and posted a 16 Billion dollar loss, the stock still continued to rise.
What does this lesson tell us? As usual, the market is always right. If it is rallying there must be an underlying reason. If it breaking, the same must be true! Don’t listen to the talking heads; listen to the market!
As always keep those stops tight!
Todd “Bubba” Horwitz