Last week the US census bureau released some shocking numbers about the general population. After decades of growth we are now down to numbers that haven’t been around since the Great Depression years of the early 1930’s.
The net gain to the US population for the past two years has averaged less than 1% a year down from highs of almost double that figure early in the 1990’s. Although the recession officially ended almost three years ago, the economic hangover is still with us.
There are a couple of reasons that both economists and sociologists cite for the decline in population growth. First when we have hard economic times many families do not want to take on the added burden of mouths to feed. We are not longer an agrarian society that relies on big families to share the burden of labor. US fertility rates are down dramatically.
Second is the fact that immigration rates during the Great Recession also dropped. Less low paying jobs mean that marginal workers cannot take the chance of immigrating.
A classic example of this decline in population is that of Las Vegas. The city led the boom, but was also one of the biggest collapses as unemployment skyrocketed when low paying jobs went away with discretionary spending in 2008. The median family income collapsed and unemployment soared to depression levels.
Pittsburgh which had its own collapse in the 1970’s when the Steel City lost its position to foreign competition was the opposite. When big Steel left, the city reinvented itself over the next twenty years, and when the big hurt hit it was a much smaller population base. The difference was that the small populations average income had skyrocketed to the point that it didn’t participate in the Great Recession.
Many pundits now fear that the population base could actually turn negative a condition that is now plaguing many countries in Western Europe.
Could this problem cause a collapse in US Stock markets?
How would you trade it if it happens?
Behind every problem is an opportunity, and this time will be not different.
Teaching students how to take advantage of opportunity in any market condition is what I specialize in doing.
To learn firsthand how I would trade the markets when population problems weight them down speak to one of my representatives and sign up to work one-on-one with me here:
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As Always,
Keep those stops tight.
Todd “Bubba” Horwitz
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